What can the world economy expect in 2018?
Should we expect a new economic crisis? What forces will move financial flows? Which industries will be the most developed? Will China get ahead of the United States? “Investor”answers these questions.In 2018, the global economy will evolve considering the collapse of the Chinese and American economies. The desire of the leaders of these states to bring them to the
forefront or to stay in the lead will move economic forces. More and more questions arise about how the EU will behave this year. Many experts predict that if Angela
Merkel remains chancellor, the young Euro-optimist Emmanuel Macron will be able to build a new strategy for the organization. It is clear that after Brexit nothing will be
as it once was. There are many issues with Hungary and Poland. Taking into account such factors, one should not expect an expansion of the organization.
In the new year, Britain must finally bid farewell to the EU. An increasing number of citizens and politicians realize that Brexit was a hasty decision. Brexit will give a
heavy hangover. Britain needs to re-adjust its economy in a new way. It especially concerns joint enterprises with other EU countries.
This year the attention will be drawn to China. The Chinese economy is not only gradually catching up with the American one. Many see a significant problem in this
race. The credit bubble and the aging of the nation on the scale of which, in the words of one expert, no one knows exactly.
Another country that worries the world this year is Russia. All experts say that Vladimir Putin will win the election, but few are trying to predict what awaits the
country the day after the election. As long as its economy is tied to energy exports, it will remain vulnerable to the volatility of this market. The sanctions that the EU and the US will most likely continue to play will not be in the interests of the economy.
An important element of the economy will be innovation. Nobody can foresee how this or that invention will affect the world economy. Another source of instability for
the world economy will be the cryptocurrency market. So far, neither government governments nor major businessmen have a clear position concerning this phenomenon.
The growth of the world economy in 2017 was 3.6%, and in 2018 it is expected at the level of 3.7%, according to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund.
Among the developed countries, the forecast is higher for Germany, France, Italy (in the eurozone – up to 2.1% in 2017 and 1.9% in 2018), as well as for Japan (up 1.5% in 2017 and up to 0.7% in 2018).
It is expected that this year there will be a slow growth in metallurgy due to the demand of the automobile industry, and housing construction will suspend its growth
globally. However, the level of metal trade can also be affected by the US desire to support its own manufacturer at the expense of customs duty increase.
It is planned that automobile industry will also grow at the expense of developing countries. The main trends of the year will be ecological cars. However, thereduction in demand for traditional cars will depend on the severity or environmental standards.
The energy sector will be severely affected by the US-OPEC oil struggle. Oil prices are expected to be lower than $ 60 per barrel. Significant changes in gas trade are
possible. As liquefied gas technology is developing, traditional gas pipelines may start to lose significance. Most countries will actively engage clean energy technologies, although they will not refuse traditional fossil fuels.
Agrarians can expect a slight increase in the demand for agricultural products. However, this will happen simultaneously with the absorption of smaller enterprises
by large conglomerates. It is also expected that organic products and healthy food trends will continue to gain popularity. In 2018, the introduction of modern technologies into the agrarian sector will increase.
Retail sales through online platforms will become widespread. Experts predict this year’s struggle between traditional and online stores. China is predicted to become a
leader of the Internet trade as half of the total trade is expected to occur in its territory.
In the area of IT technology, it is predicted that the United States will be ahead. China will play the role of the one who catches up. In addition, a new law on cyber-
security will help American businessmen as it will be largely against Chinese technologies. The use of cloud services will be popular this year, so expect their expansion, and accordingly, the growth of companies providing these services.
It is worth noting that the owners of IT companies will continue to move the global economy. Bill Gates, Larry Page, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Mask, Jeffrey Bezos will each play an important role.
Thus, the global economy will gradually evolve, although it will not show significant figures. This year, as never before, economic processes will depend on political
decisions, and the world’s business environment will often take a wait-and- see position during the political struggle.